Analysis of Opportunities and Threats of the Demographic Bonus Towards Unemployment in Indonesia

Jolianis; Putri Melizasari; Dina Amaluis

doi:10.55927/z0bjz127

Authors

Jolianis Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat Author
Putri Melizasari Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat Author
Dina Amaluis Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55927/z0bjz127

Keywords:

Demographic Bonus, Unemployment, ARIMA Model, Time Series Analysis, Labor Market Policy

Abstract

This study examines the opportunities and threats of Indonesia’s demographic bonus on the unemployment rate and its implications for labor absorption and employment policy. The research employs an associative approach to analyze the relationship between the demographic bonus and unemployment. The data consist of time series data on Indonesia’s annual unemployment rate from 1980 to 2024, collected through documentation techniques and measured in percentage terms. The Box-ARIMA model is used as the analytical method. The findings indicate that Indonesia’s unemployment rate is projected to fluctuate with an overall upward trend during the 2025–2045 period, reaching an estimated 5.76 percent by 2045. These results suggest that the demographic bonus does not automatically generate economic benefits. Without significant economic improvement and sufficient job creation, the demographic bonus may instead become a serious threat by increasing unemployment levels. The study emphasizes the importance of targeted and sustainable labor market policies to ensure that the expanding working-age population can be absorbed productively. In the absence of such policies, the demographic bonus may place additional pressure on the labor market. However, the study has limitations, as it relies on a univariate ARIMA model and long-term projections based solely on historical trends, which may not fully capture structural changes or external shocks

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